's essentially a tie right now. the data is so close. but romney was behind by a field goal, now he's kicked a field goal and we have a tie race going into the final weeks. >> what voter groups have moved in the last three weeks? are you talking about independents, are you talking about specific demographic groups? who has moved? >> well, one group that hasn't moved are the strong partisans. democrats and republicans who turn out are going to vote for their own nominee. the key statistic to watch with the partisans is enthusiasm. and the presidential debate clearly help the republican enthusiasm and hurt the democratic enthusiasm. on the other hand, the group to watch as far as the ballot test goes are the independents because they are much less lock into their particular pref presence at -- preference at the moment. your own poll showed that in virginia, according to wall street journal poll, independents moved a net seven points toward romney after the debate, and in ohio independents moved a net twelve points toward romney after the debate. those are big swings among independents, and it'